Informe especial:Crisis se traslada con violencia a los BRICS (Brasil,Rusia,India,China y Sudáfrica)

Lucha geopolítica y cómo la crisis se traslada a los BRICS (Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Sudáfrica)
Conocer lo que pasa en el mundo es muy importante; entenderlo, es mucho más importante todavía para que nadie nos pueda engañar ni vender cosas raras.



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Esto de la geopolítica, nuestra visión, que no es caprichosa, es que la crisis se traslada con mucha violencia a los BRICS.

Para los que no están atentos los BRICS es un conjunto de países, en América del Sur únicamente lo integra Brasil; lo integra también Rusia, India, China y Sudáfrica. Creemos que hay también una lucha geopolítica, en el mundo. A mí me tocó estar presente, acompañada también por algunos gobernadores, también, en una Cumbre que se hizo en Brasil entre los BRICS y los países de UNASUR, donde los BRICS decidieron conformar un fondo común de sustentabilidad para precisamente no sustituir, no competir, sino complementar. En todo caso la función del Fondo Monetario Internacional que debería ser, precisamente, la de evitar este tipo de crisis, porque para los que no lo recuerden, el FMI, producto de los Acuerdos de Bretton Wood, fue creado para eso: para darle sustentabilidad al sistema monetario internacional y evitar los movimientos especulativos. ¿Por qué? Porque se había llegado a la conclusión de que parte del conflicto bélico que tuvo lugar en Europa, con centro fundamental en Alemania, se había dado precisamente por motivos de orden económicos, de volatilidad y que había terminado con ese horror que fue el nazismo, y que se le dio una interpretación política-económica a ese fenómeno y no meramente de locos, que un día se despertaron y dijeron que querían hacer determinadas cosas.

 

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Pero veamos cómo la crisis traslada a los BRICS: Rusia devaluación del 10,5, en un solo día; devaluación mensual del 13 en marzo, en Brasil, y sin embargo fíjense que curioso, Brasil ha tenido la devaluación más importante, desde el año 2003 y sus exportaciones han caído el 23 por ciento, mucho más que las exportaciones en la República Argentina. Esto para los argumentos de algunos de los oradores. Yo creo que en realidad, esos que quieren devaluar, más que las exportaciones, los commodities y la actividad económica lo que tienen es dólares en algún lado y les convendría que devaluarán. Porque realmente si uno analiza los efectos y lo que está pasando en estos lugares se da cuenta. Miren, en China, caída un 30 por ciento de la Bolsa; en Brasil un 3 por ciento de contracción de la actividad.

 

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Aquí vemos también una guerra de monedas se desata; el próximo, los índices bursátiles se van al demonio, en Brasil, un 17 por ciento abajo, el BOVESPA. Aquí vemos lo que es Brasil el PIB, fíjense lo que fue el promedio y fíjense la última barra que había sido para abajo, que fue en los años 90, en pleno apogeo del neoliberalismo y vuelve a estar la barra abajo, en 2,1. El que sigue, por favor, en Brasil subió el desempleo al 8,3, caen las reservas internacionales, sigamos; Rusia el PIB también, fíjense el PIB, vuelve a caer; en Rusia caída de las reservas de 150 mil millones de dólares, le costó las corridas que existieron contra la moneda en Rusia, y no fue una cuestión de mercado, fue absolutamente geopolítica.

 

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India, también decrece; exportación en India, también caen; sigamos. China, miren el PIB, China que fue la locomotora del mundo, en la última década, fíjense de crecer dos dígitos, cómo se prevé su crecimiento, en el último renglón a 6,8 aproximadamente, que ojo, 6,8 para cualquiera de nuestros países en crecimiento sería estupendo. Pero si nosotros comparamos el rol de China, en el mundo, y cómo ha sido su rol en las economías emergentes, que hemos sido las que hemos movido la rueda económica, durante la última década a pesar de la crisis del 2008, esto revela –el próximo, por favor – China, industria y construcción:  la caída de la industria y de la construcción, también podemos decir que en la Argentina volvió a repuntar la construcción, ya lleva meses y meses de crecimiento, incorporación de mano de obra, batiendo récords en materia de venta de cemento a granel e individual en todo lo que hace a la construcción. Y en esto también, Adelmo, son políticas públicas. El PROCREAR y la infraestructura, las políticas de infraestructura, han sido el motor del crecimiento de la construcción.

 

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BRICS

 

India, también decrece; exportación en India, también caen; sigamos. China, miren el PIB, China que fue la locomotora del mundo, en la última década, fíjense de crecer dos dígitos, cómo se prevé su crecimiento, en el último renglón a 6,8 aproximadamente, que ojo, 6,8 para cualquiera de nuestros países en crecimiento sería estupendo. Pero si nosotros comparamos el rol de China, en el mundo, y cómo ha sido su rol en las economías emergentes, que hemos sido las que hemos movido la rueda económica, durante la última década a pesar de la crisis del 2008, esto revela. China, industria y construcción:  la caída de la industria y de la construcción, también podemos decir que en la Argentina volvió a repuntar la construcción, ya lleva meses y meses de crecimiento, incorporación de mano de obra, batiendo récords en materia de venta de cemento a granel e individual en todo lo que hace a la construcción. Y en esto también son políticas públicas. El PROCREAR y la infraestructura, las políticas de infraestructura, han sido el motor del crecimiento de la construcción.

 

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Vemos  a PROCREAR, con la inversión que hace también la ANSES, inversión productiva todos los días a lo largo y a lo ancho del país. Sin embargo, veamos lo que pasa en el gigante chino.

 

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Las caídas de reservas también. China es un monstruo en materia de reservas, pero la caída fue de… miren la fortaleza de un país para aguantar una caída de reservas de 236.000 millones de dólares.

 

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En Sudáfrica también caída. Sigamos, caída de las reservas también. Sigamos, tasa de desempleo: en Sudáfrica, estamos en el orden del 25 por ciento. La caída en las bolsas emergentes ya es noticia en todos los mercados. La próxima, bueno, acá paramos, con lo cual este es el escenario del mundo, el escenario del mundo que no es un escenario de las últimas dos semanas, no es que las últimas dos semanas cayó la Bolsa de Shangái, estábamos todos bárbaro hasta hace dos semanas. Esto no se ha detenido desde el año 2008 y ha venido con altibajos, por ahí parece que salimos, pero siempre se produce algún fenómeno. Y en caída de Bolsa y en cada subida inmediata de Bolsa, señoras y señores, queridos compatriotas, hay un puñadito de gente que gana fortunas, miles y miles de millones de dolares. Nosotros lo estamos viendo en términos de espectadores. Cayó la Bolsa de Shangái, nos agarramos la cabeza y pensamos, bueno, se va todo al demonio y hay en algún lugar del mundo alguien que se está frotando las manos porque esa caída que parece que el… a él le significó miles de millones de dólares y a la semana siguiente pum para arriba de vuelta y el mundo, el mundo sigue andando.

 

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Por eso, por favor, conocer lo que pasa en el mundo es muy importante; entenderlo, es mucho más importante todavía para que nadie nos pueda engañar ni vender cosas raras.

 

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